Microtrends
In Microtrends, Mark Penn has the theory that 3 million people constitute a "trend." That's interesting.
Currently a bit more than 800,000 people attend an Episcopal Church any given Sunday.
If those 800,000 people were to invite 4 people each, we might see something happen.
I'm skeptical. St. Barts has just now - after hiring a consultant - begun to realize how unwelcoming it is. We're friendly. We're accepting. We're liberal. But do we love people? when the consultant said, "we welcome anyone who God sends us," there was a moment of realization in the parish: God sends us people.... And what do we do with them?
Welcoming is not about smothering people with love. If anything, it requires space and grace. it begins with the hello; the invitation to wear a name tag; a friendly invitation to coffee hour. It does, however, require work and an eagerness to change things.
As a human institution, the church is faltering. Most mainline churches refuse to change due, I think, to the iron law of institutions.
The Iron Law of Institutions is: the people who control institutions care first and foremost about their power within the institution rather than the power of the institution itself. Thus, they would rather the institution "fail" while they remain in power within the institution than for the institution to "succeed" if that requires them to lose power within the institution.
This is true for all human institutions, from elementary schools up to the United States of America. If history shows anything, it's that this cannot be changed. What can be done, sometimes, is to force the people running institutions to align their own interests with those of the institution itself and its members.
I also think the spirit of habit and familiarity inhibits change or growth. During the last two weeks, I've seen changes resort to previous practices not out of maliciousness or desire, but laziness. We had moved the furniture on the altar, and the Sr. Warden, thinking a guest had moved it inappropriately, moved it back. He had no reason to. He thought there was a mistake. I didn't think people would notice that the office chairs had been moved. And lo! they were moved back.
This indicates that the form of leadership churches need is fundamentally loving, collaborative, communicative and entrepreneurial. It need not be therapeutic or fuzzy. TEC's demise will not be due to its theology, but its inability to pronounce its theology boldly enough, with fervor, with taste, and with faith. Growing churches, whether liberal or conservative, love the people, and care for the seeker. Most mainline churches must learn how to do this.